ETH could thrive with or without spot Ethereum ETFs

The approval of US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could enhance Ethereum’s market valuation. However, even if these ETFs are rejected, it may merely be a bump in the road rather than a roadblock, suggested Jupiter Zheng, Head of Research at HashKey Capital.

“If the ETF is denied, it will not be that bearish, as the market is not pricing in it yet, and we still have Bitcoin ETFs as the entrance for traditional funds,” Zheng told Cointelegraph earlier this month.

Zheng also expressed optimism about the potential bullish effect of an approved ETF, especially one that includes staking, which could trigger a wave of short liquidations and further drive up Ethereum’s price.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to make a decision on spot Ethereum ETFs within the next month. Unlike the situation with spot Bitcoin ETFs, where progress reports were abundant, the current atmosphere surrounding Ethereum ETFs is less optimistic.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has reduced the likelihood of approval to 35%. Similarly, analysts from Barron and JPMorgan remain skeptical due to the SEC’s lack of engagement.

VanEck, one of the spot Ethereum fund issuers, said in a recent interview with CNBC that the SEC’s answer could be an outright rejection.

Odds are low, but spot Ethereum ETF approval may not be the only source of momentum in the markets during this period. Prominent crypto investor Jelle believes a bullish period for Ethereum is yet to come.

According to him, there’s a similar price pattern in Ether’s chart leading up to the recent Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024, compared to the one before the halving in May 2020.

The last #Bitcoin halving was $ETH’s sign to start running hard.

Is this time different? I don’t think so. pic.twitter.com/fGIiGYufe0

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) April 4, 2024

In 2020, Ether’s price was around $210 before the halving and then rose to $433 by August 14, marking a 106% increase according to CoinMarketCap’s data. Jelle sees this historical pattern as a potential indicator for another price increase for ETH following the recent halving.

While the fate of spot Ethereum ETFs remains speculative in the US, in Hong Kong, such offerings are ready to debut trading.

Earlier this month, the Hong Kong securities watchdog greenlit spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF applications from four asset managers, including HashKey Capital, Bosera Capital, Harvest Global, and China Asset Management.

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