Ethereum to break out of bearish move, ETH ETFs unlikely in 2024

• Ethereum would likely sustain trading inside key range despite recent sharp movements outside it.
• Hong Kong spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded a second day of very low trading volume on Thursday.
• Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart doesn’t see spot Ethereum ETFs happening until 2025.

Ethereum (ETH) is beginning to show signs of recovery on Thursday despite a second consecutive day of poor performance in Hong Kong’s spot Ethereum ETFs. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart has also shared that a spot Ethereum ETF may not happen in the US in 2024.

Daily digest market movers: Spot Ethereum ETFs unlikely in 2024

Ethereum ETFs are trending again following recent developments. Here are the latest market movers for the top altcoin:

• Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded another day of underwhelming performance, as their total trading volume was approximately $8.75 million. The three Ethereum ETFs managed a trading volume of about $600,000.

  The low volume may be attributed to the recent crypto market dip, as investors are exercising caution. This aligns with the current ratio of the Ethereum Fear and Greed Index, which has declined significantly, dropping to 40 at the time of writing. While that signifies a neutral state, a further drop could quickly turn on the fear alert, signifying a potential bearish trend.

• In an interview with Altcoin Daily, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart shared that the odds of an Ethereum ETF happening in 2024 is low, adding that an approval in 2025 looks more likely. He pointed out that a SEC approval of spot ETH ETFs in May is highly unlikely, considering there have been no positive signs.

  “Our official stat is 25%. We’re gonna have to lower that in the future as we are not seeing any movements,” he said. The SEC must decide on Van Ecks’ spot Ethereum ETF application on May 23.

• However, he doesn’t expect the SEC to deny ETH ETFs by going nuclear and calling them security, as it would invite a plethora of lawsuits. Instead, he expects the regulator to come up with a word salad—like leaning on weak correlations—as a reason for denial. Seyffart also noted that the outcome of the US presidential election may play a role in the final decision on ETH ETFs.

ETH technical analysis: Ethereum to rise within key range

After the recent downturn that saw its price reaching $2,816 on Wednesday, Ethereum is looking likely to recover earlier losses as it’s currently trading close to $3,000. While many have turned bearish following recent price movements, ETH may not sustain any decline outside the $2,852 to $3,300 range for too long.

ETH/USDT 1-hour chart

We can also see this from the decline in Ethereum long liquidations, which sat around $34 million in the past 24 hours. Ethereum open interest (OI) has also risen slightly by 2% on Thursday, indicating traders are beginning to open positions again.

As a result, ETH’s potential to decline further is unlikely. If ETH breaks past $3,029, it may rise further to cover the liquidity void of April 30.

This thesis would be invalidated if an upcoming macro event disrupts market dynamics.

Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence risk assets like Bitcoin, mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher.

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