Ethereum: wallet purchases change price predictions

Yesterday the price of Ethereum bounced back from its local low around $2,850, driven by a frenzy of shopping by a mysterious wallet that accumulated a whopping 30,680 ETH in less than 24 hours, equivalent to over $92 million.

Purchases of this kind by whales suggest important signals for the evolution of the price action of the crypto asset, which could now see strongly bullish forecasts in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic landscape also seems to support risk-on assets, after yesterday’s CPI data indicated inflation in line with market expectations.
Let’s see all the details below.

Summary

• Mysterious wallet buys 30,000 ETH and helps crypto bounce back from local lows
• Macro data and price forecasts for Ethereum: bullish restart on the horizon after wallet expenses?

Mysterious wallet buys 30,000 ETH and helps crypto bounce back from local lows

Yesterday the market sentiment and short-term forecasts of Ethereum investors changed suddenly, after the cryptocurrency regained the crucial price level of $3,000, further strengthening the underlying support.

Having contributed to the rebound of the crypto, which closed the day with a +5.23%, we see the hand of a mysterious wallet that has accumulated a fortune in ether.
The whale in question received a whopping 30,680 ETH in a completely new address, with a current value of 92.5 million dollars.

Usually monitoring the money flows of these subjects and their traders can help to get an idea of which direction the market should take and how the price forecast of an asset evolves.

We do not know who is behind the identity of the wallet, but thanks to on-chain data we can easily observe how another address has funded the loot with 7 distinct transfers, each ranging from 5 to 23 million dollars in Ethereum.

These transactions all took place between May 13th and 15th, with the last one processed just 15 hours ago, showing a strong bullish bias.

The timing of the whale was impeccable: in fact, in the last 3 days Ethereum has recorded one of its lowest values in the last 3 months, marking a bottom construct that could remain invalidated for much longer.

Very interesting to note also how the wallet responsible for transfers also holds a large amount of coins for a total of 48 million dollars, divided among ETH, USDT and various altcoins.

Among the most significant holdings of this entity we see RDNR, IMX, GRT, UNI and LINK, with values ranging from $800,000 to $1.8 million.

Curious the fact that the same wallet yesterday, while moving 30,650 ETH to a new address, also made a transfer of 1.4 billion STRK equal to 1.7 million dollars to another address, also fresh in age.

In addition to these 2 interconnected wallets, other whales also took advantage of yesterday’s discounts to make purchases on the cryptocurrency market.
As reported by “Whale Alert”, a user moved another approximately 30,800 ETH from an unknown address to the Coinbase Institutional account.

Meanwhile, another individual has accumulated about 10,000 ETH from Bitstamp, worth 29 million dollars.

🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 30,807 #ETH (88,976,144 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutionalhttps://t.co/jwtstYsjUm

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) May 15, 2024

Macro data and price forecasts for Ethereum: bullish restart on the horizon after wallet expenses?

It is important to underline how in addition to significant purchases of mysterious wallets, the price of Ethereum has been boosted by macro events that have strengthened the short and medium-term forecasts of the asset.

Yesterday, the data for the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) were released, which measures the trend of consumer prices in the United States according to the estimates of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As reported, the index shows a value of 3.4% in line with investors’ expectations, suggesting a possible reversal of the type of monetary policy adopted by the FED so far, with the likelihood of a first rate cut by September increasing significantly.

With inflation “under control” it is more likely that the FED will move towards a more expansive monetary policy, which can act as fuel for speculative markets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies.

🚨 BREAKING 🚨

US CPI DATA CAME IN AT 3.4%

EXPECTATIONS: 3.4%

— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) May 15, 2024

At the same time, however, there are those who, like the founder of “3FResearch” Warren Pies, are not convinced of the change in perspective of the US central bank and are reluctant to believe that the weight of inflation is on the verge of disappearing.

As the researcher points out, the inflation of car insurance and housing accounted for about 78% of the core CPI, therefore it does not provide a comprehensive analysis framework.

According to his forecasts, there is no disinflation on the way, so speculative markets will continue to bleed for a while longer.

CPI

Car insurance + shelter inflation accounted for ~78% of core CPI.

How you view this report comes down to whether you think shelter inflation is “lagging” and will imminently roll.

For now, the market (and Fed) believes shelter disinflation is coming.

I don’t think it is. pic.twitter.com/pWkQqlS3u0

— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) May 15, 2024

Returning to the analysis of Ethereum prices, we can notice how yesterday’s movement seems to have confirmed the formation of a solid local minimum, where bears have tried to break in for a total of 4 times in the last 30 days, without being able to break through the acquired barrier.

However, despite yesterday’s excellent performance, prices are still below the 50-period exponential moving average on the daily time frame, signaling that control of the situation is still in the hands of the short sellers.

The volumes are not strongly encouraging and the RSI remains in neutral territory.

The open interest slightly up to 8.3 billion dollars gives hope for a bullish restart in the short term, while the futures funding rate in positive territory still supports bull operations.

At the moment we cannot say for sure that the minimum of this quarterly cycle has just been touched, nor that from now on Ethereum will immediately start pushing towards new highs.

The outlook for prices and the macro scenario seem decidedly improved, but the road still hides some uncertainty. The approval of the Ethereum spot ETF could be what is needed to support a crypto rally and surpass Bitcoin’s performance.

For now, without considering the ETF factor, based on what has been analyzed, we can venture to make bullish predictions for the coming months with Ethereum likely to reclaim $4,000, unless the overall market landscape changes

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