Understanding the Psychology Behind Market Cycles

Defining Market Psychology

The concept of market psychology includes the reflection of the members’ emotional state via market movements. It works as one of the chief subjects dealing with behavioral economics (known as an interdisciplinary zone that examines diverse factors preceding economic decisions). Several people think that emotions play a vital role at the back of the financial market shifts through market cycles.

Hence, the overall fluctuating investor sentiment develops the psychological cycles in the market. In brief, market sentiment offers a general feeling of the traders and investors concerning an asset’s price action. When the sentiment is optimistic with a continuous price rise, it is called a bullish trend or bull market. A bear market is the opposite of that situation where the prices see an overall decline.

Thus, the sentiment includes the individual feelings and views of the traders as well as investors in the financial sector. Another viewpoint about it labels it as an average of the general feeling of the participants of the market. However, just like the other groups, none of the single opinions stays dominant. The theories of market psychology suggest the price trend of an asset tends to alter constantly with market sentiment.

This also shows dynamism. Otherwise, conducting an effective trade would become considerably harder. Practically, in a positive trend, the potential reason is an improvement in the confidence and attitude of the traders. A decrease takes place in supply while demand increases during a positive sentiment in the market. Subsequently, the high demand may result in a more resilient attitude. Likewise, a robust downtrend leans toward developing a negative sentiment. This reportedly decreases the demand while increasing the existing supply.

The Change of Emotions through Market Cycles

Uptrend

The markets experience cycles of contraction and expansion. When a market goes through an expansion phase, greed, belief, and optimism increase in the overall climate. Typically, these emotions are the topmost leading to a resilient buying activity. It is very common to witness a retroactive or cyclical effect during such market cycles. The sentiment becomes additionally positive with the increase in the prices. This causes more positivity in the sentiment and rives the market to more heights.

Sometimes, a solid belief and greed overtake the market, potentially forming a financial bubble. Such a scenario may see several investors turning irrational, losing the understanding of the actual value. Due to this, they may purchase an asset just because they believe the market to rise continuously. They get overhyped and greedy in line with the market momentum, with huge hopes to get profits.

When the price reaches the overextended upside, the native topic is developed. Generally, this denotes the point where there is extreme financial risk. Some cases witness sideways movement of the market for some time while the market participants gradually sell the assets. This additionally works as the distribution phase. Nevertheless, a few cycles don’t offer a clear dissemination phase. Therefore, the downtrend begins just after the asset reaches the top.

Downtrend

Often just after the euphoric mood, the market turns into complacency when traders think that the uptrend has not been completed. With the continuous dip in prices, the market sentiment rapidly shifts to a negative trend. It normally includes feelings such as panic, denial, and anxiety. The anxiety phase indicates a moment when several investors question the reason behind the price decline. This paves the way for the denial phase.

The period of denial includes a feeling of unacceptance while several investors keep on holding the losing positions. Nonetheless, the further decline in the price strengthens the selling wave known as “capitulation.” Ultimately, the downtrend halts with a decrease in the volatility and stability of the market. Typically, the market records sideways movements ahead of the feelings of optimism and hope, denoting the “accumulation” phase.

The Use of Market Psychology by the Investors

Comprehending the market psychology theory may assist a trader in delving into and leaving positions at suitable times. The usual market attitude shows counterproductiveness. This is the moment dealing with the top financial opportunity facilitating a buyer. It normally takes place when most of the market participants become hopeless when the market gets very low.

On the other hand, the moment of the maximum financial risk time and again occurs when a great number of market members are overconfident and euphoric. Hence, the market participants attempt to read the market sentiment to detect the diverse phases of the psychological cycles. Preferably, they would utilize this information for purchasing when panic rises and sell when greed increases.

The Relationship between Technical Analysis and Market Psychology

It is convenient to comprehend the previous market cycles to recognize the overall change in psychology. This helps one to make suitable decisions when they are the most profitable. Nonetheless, it becomes much more difficult to note the market change when the next development becomes uncertain. In such a situation, investors utilize technical analysis.

TA indicators measure the market’s psychological state. For example, the Relative Strength Index indicator reportedly specifies if an asset has reached the stage of being overbought because of an optimistic market sentiment.

Market Psychology and Bitcoin

2017’s bull market of Bitcoin offers a clear instance of the impact that market psychology has on prices. Between January and December, the top crypto asset jumped from just $900 to an all-time high spot of nearly $20,000. During the respective upsurge, market sentiment saw increasing positivity. Numerous new investors entered the market to enjoy the bull market.

Following that, a trend reversal commenced in 2017’s end and prolonged to early 2018. As a result of this, several late joiners incurred huge losses. Hence, despite the start of the downtrend, many investors kept on following a false confidence. After a few months, the market sentiment recorded a huge negativity while the confidence touched an all-time low. Panic and FUD triggered a sell-off wave, causing significant losses.

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