Risks Are Skewed to a Weaker Nonfarm Payrolls Print, ING Says

Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could disappoint expectations, according to ING.

A weak report will likely bolster Fed rate cut expectations and potentially support risk assets, including bitcoin.

With markets awaiting Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, analysts at ING caution that the scales are tipped toward a weaker number, potentially adding to volatility in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

The data due at 8:30 ET (12:30 UTC) is expected to show the U.S. economy added 185,000 jobs in July, down from June’s 206,000, according to economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. The jobless rate is seen at 4.1%, unchanged from June, while the annual growth in hourly wages likely slowed to 3.7%.

“Evidence from employment components of the ISM and NFIB surveys suggest the risks are skewed to a weaker payroll print,” analysts at ING said in a note to clients Friday, explaining their bearish view on the dollar.

A weak report would undoubtedly bolster expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year, denting the currency’s appeal. Traders already expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September and ramp up easing even though Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday ruled out big rate cuts. According to ING, macroeconomic forces could drive the dollar lower once the ongoing equity turmoil and haven demand from geopolitical tensions abate.

A weaker greenback, the global reserve currency with an outsized impact on financial conditions, often galvanizes demand for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered from the Asian session low of around $62,200 to $64,500 ahead of the payrolls report, CoinDesk data show. Analysts expect the imminent Fed rate cut to drive the cryptocurrency to new highs above $74,000 in the coming months.

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