Upcoming Avalanche (AVAX) Token Unlock Highlights Trader-Whale Divide

Avalanche (AVAX) will undergo another token unlock on August 20. This increase in supply, a notable event, could impact AVAX’s price as it has in the past.

However, an analysis of the Avalanche network reveals a disparity between two key stakeholders.

Avalanche Key Figures Look in Different Directions

Previously, BeInCrypto had reported how AVAX will unlock 9.54 million tokens, valued at $251 million at the time. The distribution, set to go to the Avalanche team and strategic investors, could lead to price volatility for AVAX.

As the event approaches, on-chain data spots a notable difference in sentiment between whales and traders in the derivatives market. According to Santiment, AVAX’s Funding Rate is negative.

In non-technical terms, the Funding Rate is the cost of holding an open position in the market. If funding is positive, the contract price trades at a premium to the spot price, suggesting that traders are willing to pay a higher fee while betting on rising prices.

Read more: What Is Avalanche (AVAX)?

Avalanche Funding Rate. Source: Santiment

A negative funding, as in AVAX’s situation, implies a bearish sentiment, suggesting that traders expect the price to fall. However, whales appear to have a different outlook. According to IntoTheBlock, the Large Holders Netflow on Avalanche’s network has risen by 33.66% in the past seven days.

This netflow represents

represents the difference between Large Holders’ Inflow and Outflow. An increase in netflow indicates that whales are accumulating more than they are selling, while a decrease suggests greater distribution.

The positive difference for AVAX suggests accumulation. From a price perspective, if this trend continues, it could signal increased confidence in a strong short-term performance for AVAX.

Avalanche Large Holders Netflow. Source: IntoTheBlock

AVAX Price Prediction: No Victor, No Vanquished

At press time, AVAX trades at $21.27 and has been hovering around the same region for the past few days. In between this consolidation, the token briefly slipped below $20 on August 8, as seen on the daily chart.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows bearish momentum for AVAX. The MACD measures momentum by calculating the difference between two moving averages. When the MACD reading is above the signal line, it indicates bullish momentum; when below, it signals bearish momentum. For AVAX, the MACD is below the signal line, suggesting that a breakout could be difficult.

Additionally, AVAX may continue consolidating between a swing low of $20.43 and a swing high of $22.79. The Fibonacci retracement indicator provides further insights into potential support and resistance levels.

Read more: 11 Best Avalanche (AVAX) Wallets to Consider in 2024

Avalanche Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

As shown above, a highly bearish scenario may drive AVAX down to $17.10. However, if whale accumulation intensifies, the token may hit a first target of $23.07 before a possible retest of $26.64.

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