“We’re Seeing Recession Indicators Flashing Red,” Warns Rosenberg Research President

In a recent interview on CNBC’s “Fast Money,” David Rosenberg shared his thoughts on the current economic landscape, expressing strong concerns that a recession is imminent.

David Rosenberg is the Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm he established in January 2020. The firm focuses on providing investors with economic analysis to support their investment decisions.

Before founding Rosenberg Research, Rosenberg held several prominent positions in the financial industry. From 2009 to 2019, he served as the Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. Prior to that, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York from 2002 to 2009, where he earned recognition for his work, consistently ranking in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Earlier in his career, Rosenberg was the Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based in Toronto, where he and his team were consistently ranked first in the Brendan Wood survey of Canadian economists for ten consecutive years.

Rosenberg began by addressing the apparent disconnect between the stock market’s performance and the underlying economic fundamentals. He noted that while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been hitting record highs, this rise has been driven primarily by multiple expansion rather than strong earnings growth. According to Rosenberg, earnings estimates for the remainder of the year have actually been revised downward, yet the market continues to climb. He described this phenomenon as “purely multiple expansion,” warning that it could be a sign of underlying weakness rather than strength.

A key point in Rosenberg’s analysis was the troubling state of consumer finances. He observed that while consumer spending has exceeded expectations, this spending is not being fueled by income growth. Instead, it is being driven by a concerning decline in the personal savings rate, which has dropped to a historically low 2.9%. Rosenberg pointed out that this level of savings is extremely rare, having only occurred 5% of the time in history. He described the current consumer spending reports as “low quality” because they are supported by the depletion of savings rather than sustainable income growth.

Rosenberg also highlighted that several sectors of the economy are already in recession, despite the overall GDP growth. He specifically mentioned that real capital spending, the industrial sector, and the housing market have all rolled back into recessionary conditions. While these sectors are not the largest components of GDP, Rosenberg cautioned that their struggles could foreshadow broader economic challenges.

The discussion then shifted to the labor market, where Rosenberg expressed skepticism about the stability of the unemployment rate. Contrary to some optimistic views, Rosenberg noted that the unemployment rate has actually increased by 80 basis points over the past year. He emphasized that this trend has caught the attention of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who has expressed concerns about the growing slack in the jobs market. Rosenberg argued that this increase in unemployment is a critical factor behind the Fed’s decision to begin cutting interest rates, a move he views as a clear sign that the economy is weakening.

When asked about the Federal Reserve’s response to these developments, Rosenberg did not mince words, stating that the Fed is “behind the curve.” He pointed out that despite the Fed’s recent actions, including rate cuts, the broader economy has normalized in terms of inflation and labor market conditions. However, Rosenberg criticized the Fed for maintaining an interest rate that is still well above what he considers the neutral level for a normalized economy.

Rosenberg also discussed the implications of the current interest rate environment on various market sectors. He noted that defensive sectors, such as utilities, healthcare, and telecom services, have already seen significant gains as investors seek safety in a cooling economy. He referred to these sectors as “bonds in drag,” meaning they are behaving like bonds due to their defensive growth characteristics and the interest rate outlook. Rosenberg suggested that these sectors remain attractive investment options given the likelihood of continued rate cuts and a slowing economy.

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