Betting Markets and Polls Show Harris Ahead of Trump as Election Nears

With only 44 days remaining until the U.S. election, the blockchain-powered predictions market Polymarket shows Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead in a wager against former President Donald Trump. As of Sunday, Sept. 22, Harris holds 52%, with Trump close on her heels at 47%.

Harris Tops Trump in Polls and Prediction Markets as Countdown to Election Continues

This weekend, Democratic 2024 candidate Kamala Harris is edging out Republican contender Donald Trump in the betting odds. As of Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, Polymarket has Harris leading with 52%, while Trump trails at 47%. Though Trump had recently held the advantage by winning over more swing states, the tables have turned just 44 days before the general election.

As of Sept. 22, Harris is ahead in four of the six key swing states, locking down Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Meanwhile, Trump holds sway in Arizona and Georgia. Polymarket bettors estimate only a 23% chance that Harris will sweep all six battleground states. Another bet on the platform gives the candidates a 26% likelihood of squaring off in another debate before election day.

Harris is also leading across other betting markets and prediction platforms. On predictit.org, she holds 58%, with Trump trailing at 45%. On betohio.com, Harris has a 55.6% implied probability, while Trump stands at 50%. Meanwhile, covers.com gives Harris a 58% chance to Trump’s implied 47.6%.

In polling, Harris has also made gains. According to the Silver Bulletin data from Sept. 20, she holds an implied 51.1%, while Trump stands at 48.6%. A New York Times poll projects an electoral college win for Harris with 296 votes to Trump’s 241. A CBS general election poll shows Harris leading at 52% to Trump’s 48%, and an NBC poll has Harris ahead at 49%, with Trump trailing at 44%.

What do you think about the latest betting and poll odds for the 2024 U.S. election? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.

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