Bitcoin ETFs hit $1b weekly inflows, analysts expect FOMO-driven rally

Liquidity flowing into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, surpassed $1 billion this week as analysts anticipate a new all-time high for the top cryptocurrency over the next three months.

For the first time since July, weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassed the billion-dollar mark, reaching $1.11 billion. This pushed the total cumulative net inflows across the 12 offerings to $18.8 billion, marking a new all-time high, per SoSoValue data.

Notably, most of the inflows — $494.27 million — were recorded on Sept. 27, led by ARK 21Shares’ ARKB, with only four of the twelve offerings registering no flows.

• ARK 21Shares’ ARKB, $203.07 million.
• Fidelity’s FBTC, 123.61 million.
• BlackRock’s IBIT continued its 5-day inflow streak bringing in $110.82 million.
• Grayscale’s GBTC drew in $26.15, its first inflow since Sept. 16
• Bitwise’s BITB logged its fourth straight day of positive inflows, bringing in $12.91 million.
• VanEck’s HODL, $11.17 million.
• Invesco’s BTCO, $3.28 million.
• Valkyrie’s BRRR, $3.26 million.
• Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, WisdomTree’s BTCW, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, and Hashdex’s DEFI saw no flows.

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Brace for a bullish Q4: analysts

The uptick in inflows coincided with Bitcoin (BTC) breaking past a key resistance level at $65,000, which some analysts believe could spark a wave of FOMO-driven buying and set the stage for a run toward new all-time highs.

In his latest analysis, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen noted Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $65,000 is a major catalyst for a potential Q4 rally. He believes this move could ignite a wave of FOMO, pushing Bitcoin toward $70,000 and setting the stage for new all-time highs sooner than most expect.

Thielen pointed to a combination of factors driving this bullish momentum, including a sharp rise in stablecoin minting—nearly $10 billion issued after the Fed’s July meeting—flooding the crypto market with liquidity.

Thielen noted that 55% of currently mined Bitcoins come from mining pools in China. The country’s massive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, announced right after the Fed’s rate cut, could trigger “significant capital outflows” into cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.

With these forces in play, the chances of a major surge this quarter look strong, according to the analyst.

“The likelihood of a Q4 rally is exceptionally high, with gains likely front-loaded [..] A major surge could be on the horizon, sparking even more FOMO across the crypto space.”

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10X Research

Echoing Thielen’s bullish outlook, Matt Mena of 21Shares told crypto.news that Bitcoin’s surge past $65,000 is already igniting strong investor interest.

According to Mena, lower-than-expected inflation data and the recent rate cut have fueled optimism for a more accommodative Fed, boosting appetite for risk assets. Coupled with global liquidity injections, this has created an ideal environment for Bitcoin’s continued rise as investors seek higher-yielding opportunities.

As investors flock toward crypto, Mena sees Bitcoin gearing up for a retest of the $68,000 to $70,000 range.

“For retail investors, this presents an opportune moment to increase exposure to risk assets, especially given BTC’s historical tendency to rally around this time during halving years.”

Matt Mena, crypto researcher at 21Shares

Meanwhile, on X, one trader suggested that Bitcoin could reach $124,000 by the end of 2024, citing historical data showing an average Q4 return of 88.84% following a positive September. See below.

Historically, when #Bitcoin has had a positive September, it has often set the stage for a strong Q4.

History shows an average Q4 return for $BTC at +88.84%, which from todays prices would mean that Bitcoin could end the year at $124,000

History shows that when September is… pic.twitter.com/yCBjvcUrLN

— StockTrader_Max (@StockTrader_Max) September 28, 2024

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index surged to 64, rebounding sharply from its August low of 17 and signaling strong market optimism.

Bitcoin was trading at $65,757, up more than 4% for the week and 11.18% for the month — its best run since March.

The flagship cryptocurrency was just 10.8% shy of its all-time high posted in March 2024.

Read more: Spot Bitcoin ETFs log massive $365.7m inflows led by ARK 21Shares’ ARKB

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