Bitcoin’s move above $30K represents a ‘shift in sentiment,’ analysts say

On-chain metrics are flashing signs of resiliency for the world’s largest digital asset, bitcoin (BTC), as individuals continue to hold onto their coins in the face of broader market uncertainty.

The asset is into its fifth consecutive daily win, setting a fresh three-month high above $30,900, Blockworks data shows.

Total open interest for bitcoin options contracts across Bybit, Binance, OKX and Deribit has reached levels not seen for more than two months, at just over $6.46 billion.

Liquidations for BTC futures jumped to a total of $31.5 million on Sunday, CoinGlass data shows. Even still, activity has remained relatively uneventful compared to last week’s Oct. 16’s $100 million wipeout on the false approval announcement of a US spot bitcoin ETF.

“While the ETF news was proven to be fake, there has been a clear shift in sentiment from ‘if’ to ‘when’ in terms of whether the SEC will approve any applications in the next few months,” Berkeley Cox, derivatives analyst at Zerocap told Blockworks.

This shift was further echoed in the options market on Sunday, where the 25 delta skew has tilted towards bullish territory, a position not observed since January’s surge, Cox noted.

Given the continued rise in front-end implied volatility (IV), long calendar options strategies may become increasingly appealing. Market participants are focusing on the prospect of ETF approval — or at the very least, a spike in volatility — by late December to early January, Cox said.

According to CryptoQuant’s Exchange Depositing Transactions for BTC, based on a seven-day moving average, total deposits to centralized platforms have fallen to their lowest levels since May 21, at just above 34,600 BTC.

The analytics firm believes a higher value indicates more individuals are willing to sell to the spot market while conversely, a dip lower indicates users are holding onto their coins and are expecting a future price rise.

“There seems to be no eminent selling pressure from long-term holders despite the $30,000 price tag,” a spokesperson for CryptoQuant told Blockworks.

$27-30K BTC significant for crypto. Basically the 3AC/Luna liquidation level. Also roughly Saylors cost basis. Lose this level and its lights on

— Vance Spencer (@pythianism) October 22, 2023

Meanwhile, declining active addresses can point to participants seeking to hold onto the asset rather than utilize it as a medium of exchange or transfer it to exchanges during periods of profit-taking, Blockworks was previously told.

The total number of active addresses when viewed over a seven-day average has dipped to the lowest point Since Dec. 28, data shows.

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