A silent space: Missing crypto conversation in the Musk-Trump interview

Was the absence of any mention of Bitcoin during the Musk-Trump interview a deliberate omission, or does it indicate a deeper shift in Trump’s crypto strategy for the upcoming election?

Table of Contents

• Unpacking the drama
• Trump’s declining odds on Polymarket
• Trump’s mood swings?

The anticipation was palpable when Elon Musk, the tech mogul behind X (formerly Twitter), announced that he would host an interview with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on his platform.

Billed as a major conversation, the event attracted a flurry of attention from both political enthusiasts and the crypto community. However, the session took an unexpected turn even before it began.

For over 45 minutes, eager listeners were left in the dark as the interview faced a critical delay. Musk later revealed that the interruption was due to a “massive DDOS attack on X,” speculating that the attack was likely due to “a lot of opposition to people just hearing what President Trump has to say.”

There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 13, 2024

Despite the rocky start, the conversation eventually went live. However, against all predictions, not a single word about crypto or Bitcoin (BTC) was uttered during the entire session.

This silence is especially surprising given the widespread speculation that Trump if elected, could shape the future of digital currencies in America.

So, what happened? And with crypto off the table, does this signal a shift in Trump’s stance or his priorities? Let’s find out.

Unpacking the drama

As the conversation between Musk and Trump unfolded on X, it quickly became apparent that this was no ordinary interview.

Spanning over two hours, the discussion was dominated by Trump, who often spoke at length—sometimes with a pronounced lisp — leaving Musk with little room to interject. The topics ranged widely, covering energy policy, climate change, immigration, and others.

Early on, Musk and Trump discussed the recent assassination attempt on the former president.

Trump then shifted the focus to his stance on increasing U.S. oil drilling, a view that directly clashes with Musk’s business interests, particularly Tesla’s focus on electric vehicles and sustainable energy.

Throughout the conversation, Musk mentioned his past affiliation with the Democratic Party, hinting at a recent shift toward more conservative views.

While the session attracted 1.3 million listeners at its peak, many were puzzled by the absence of any discussion on Bitcoin or crypto — a topic that seemed almost inevitable given the profiles of both Musk and Trump.

Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, had bettors convinced that digital assets would be a key part of the discussion, with odds peaking at 69% for a “Bitcoin” mention.

Crypto’s omission didn’t just surprise listeners — it also had stark financial implications. Nearly $5 million was riding on Polymarket bets about Trump’s choice of words, with “crypto” leading the pack.

Despite these high stakes and widespread anticipation, the word never came up, leading to an unexpected outcome for many bettors.

However, one Polymarket user, going by the name bama124, managed to navigate this uncertainty with remarkable precision. By accurately predicting the exact words Trump would — and wouldn’t — say, including the omission of “crypto,” bama124 walked away with almost $1 million.

The bettor had placed wagers on several key phrases, such as “crypto,” “Bitcoin,” “Tesla,” and “censorship,” correctly forecasting that none would be mentioned by the former president.

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Trump’s declining odds on Polymarket

In the months leading up to the presidential election, Donald Trump seemed to be on a steady path to victory. His odds of winning on Polymarket had been rising since May, peaking at over 72% on July 16, shortly after he survived an assassination attempt.

At that time, Trump was considered the frontrunner, especially as Joe Biden’s credibility took a hit after the first presidential debate, ultimately leading to Biden dropping out of the race.

The game changed with Kamala Harris entering the presidential race. Now the leading Democratic candidate, Harris has rapidly gained traction, and the odds reflect this shift.

As of August 13, Trump’s winning odds on Polymarket have dropped to 46%, while Harris has surged ahead with 52%. The contest has already attracted nearly $583 million in total bids—and there are still three months left until the election.

It’s worth noting that Harris’s campaign has been bolstered by active support from key figures in the crypto industry.

Influential personalities like Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, both of whom support Harris, are scheduled to participate in a virtual event this week to further her campaign.

Additionally, a support group named “Crypto for Harris” has been launched, aiming to mobilize voters and enhance fundraising efforts within the crypto community.

Once the favored candidate, Trump now finds himself playing catch-up as the election approaches, with the political tide seemingly turning in Harris’s favor.

Trump’s mood swings?

Throughout 2024, Trump has made several moves to court the crypto community as part of his presidential campaign.

Back in May, he began accepting crypto donations, signaling a shift in his stance after previously expressing skepticism.

This was followed by his specific support for Bitcoin miners in June, where he expressed hope that the remaining Bitcoin would be mined right here in America.

To top it off, Trump was the main guest at the Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville at the end of July, further solidifying his appeal to crypto voters.

However, despite these gestures, Trump’s recent interview with Musk suggests that his stance on crypto may not be as solid as it seems.

The complete absence of any discussion on digital assets during the two-hour conversation has left many in the crypto community scratching their heads.

Was this an intentional omission, or does it hint at a more ambiguous position on the issue? It’s hard to say, but the silence certainly speaks volumes.

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