Analyst Awaits Bitcoin Monthly Breakout Candle for Potential Multi-Month Rally

Analyst Aksel Kibar predicts a potential multi-month Bitcoin uptrend if key resistance levels break, citing historical breakout patterns.

Bitcoin has experienced a volatile week, moving from a sharp decline to a significant recovery. After dipping below $59,000 last Thursday, the crypto rebounded to reach a multi-month high of $68,000.

This surge was followed by a brief drop, stabilizing around $67,000. Amid the ongoing movements, some analysts now anticipate further gains while others warn of possible downturns.

Key Price Movements and Historical Patterns

Chartered Market Technician Aksel Kibar highlighted key moments in Bitcoin’s price history, identifying critical levels that could influence future trends.

His analysis focuses on several “Minor Highs,” points where Bitcoin previously encountered resistance and either consolidated or retraced. These include peaks originating from 2013 and the well-known 2017 high of $20,000.

Waiting patiently for that monthly breakout candle that would launch multi-month long uptrend. $BTCUSD https://t.co/IcHcVGuku1 pic.twitter.com/aENyl367U3

— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) October 16, 2024

Notably, Kibar pointed to the significance of “Breakout Candles” in Bitcoin’s monthly chart, such as the breakout near $1,000 in 2016, which triggered a rally toward $20,000 in December 2017.

He now anticipates another similar breakout, signaling a potential multi-month uptrend if Bitcoin breaches key resistance levels. This aligns with his earlier September observation that Bitcoin’s refusal to pull back from its all-time high and tight consolidation is a strong indicator of further upward movement.

Whale Activity & Market Shifts

Recent data from market intelligence platform Santiment supports the notion of a bullish trend, as whale transactions have reached a ten-week high. On Tuesday alone, the market recorded 11,697 transfers worth over $100,000, and Wednesday appeared to be on track for similarly high volumes.

This uptick in large transactions is usually a signal that institutional investors or large holders are preparing for a market trend shift, either through accumulation or repositioning of significant amounts of Bitcoin.

Additionally, Santiment reported an increase in Bitcoin’s dominance in social media discussions, accounting for over 25% of all crypto-related conversations.

According to Santiment, the recent spike in whale transactions and increased social media dominance suggest that the rally may be temporarily paused due to profit-taking by key stakeholders and heightened retail FOMO.

Despite this, mid and long-term metrics remain bullish, indicating that any potential price correction is expected to be brief.

Diverging Analyst Views

Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s recent performance, not all analysts are aligned on future prospects. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that while Bitcoin successfully surpassed its August peak, it now faces significant resistance at the top of a long-term downward channel.

Rekt Capital warned that should Bitcoin fail to close above this resistance zone, it could face a correction of up to 30%, potentially dragging the price down to $47,000. The pattern of progressively deeper corrections, starting from a 17% decline in March to the most recent 29% drop, suggests a similar pullback could occur if the resistance remains intact.

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