Bitcoin gets ‘whale games’ warning as BTC price eyes $40K into US data

Bitcoin (BTC) held momentum at $38,000 on Nov. 29 as analysis warned over market corrections.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin meets macro data, Fed’s Powell at key price point

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price trajectory continuing to aim for new 18-month highs.

After matching current highs the day prior, the largest cryptocurrency surprised by keeping a grip on higher levels as futures markets hit $39,000.

Already a topic of debate, the excitement on derivatives led some to caution that large-volume traders could still leave late long positions stranded at the top.

In commentary overnight, Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, told traders to be wary of these “whale games.”

“Earlier today, some ask liquidity at $38k was pulled to open the door to $38.5k. Don’t allow yourself to think that was a friendly whale giving you boost. That was a Killer Whale trying to FOMO you in,” he wrote about the initial trip past $38,000.

Alan continued that words due Dec. 1 from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve, may provide an external BTC price catalyst which could even bring $40,000 into play.

Whales, however, would be spying a key level at which to sell off.

“My assumption is that they will continue to do so until there is enough to dump into,” he forecast.

“That doesn’t mean that #JPow’s speech can’t be the catalyst that sends price past $40k, especially as we see bid liquidity coming in above $37.5k, but if you aren’t prepared to sweep the local lows between now and then you haven’t been paying attention to how these Whale Games tend to play out.”

BTC/USDT order book liquidity. Source: Keith Alan/X

An accompanying chart showed order book sell-side liquidity concentrated at $38,500 — a level yet to be challenged at the time of writing.

Others remained confident that further short-term upside was possible and even likely.

Analyzing current market composition, popular trader Skew concluded that volume was all that was missing for a breakout toward the $40,000 watershed.

$BTC 4H Update
Trend still respected & clean HL exactly where I expected it to occur ($36.7K)

Just need the HH now & volume supported break of $38K – $40K resistance https://t.co/iPPGzVIbFF pic.twitter.com/SQtKwvBdz0

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) November 29, 2023

Ackman bets on Q1 Fed rate cut

As Cointelegraph reported, prior to Powell’s speech, key U.S. macro data will lend extra weight to Fed policy.

Related: Bitcoin metric that ‘looks into future’ eyes $48K BTC price around ETF

This comes in the form of Q3 GDP and the October print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index on Nov. 29 and Nov. 30, respectively.

Previously, inflation abating faster than expectations led markets to assume that no further interest rate hikes would occur at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Speaking to Bloomberg on Nov. 28, Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, stated that the Fed might have no choice but to pivot on rates at the start of 2024.

“I think they’re going to cut rates; I think they’re going to cut rates sooner than people expect,” he said.

Ackman continued that not cutting rates “pretty soon” would increase the risk of a so-called hard landing for the U.S. economy as inflation tails off.

“I think the market expects sometime in the middle of next year; I think it’s more likely, probably, as early as Q1,” he predicted.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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