Bitcoin Halving Might Spark 400% Bull Run, Here’s Predicted Timing

The fourth Bitcoin halving is getting closer, which will be a significant milestone for both the cryptocurrency and its holders.

The halving event, which occurs every 210,000 blocks and reduces the rate of new coin issuance by 50%, is one of the most anticipated events on the Bitcoin calendar.

While the next BTC halving is scheduled at block height 840,000, the exact date and hour are uncertain due to the natural variability and probabilistic nature of mining blocks.

Glassnode, an on-chain analytics start-up, estimates that the halving is 158 days away, or on April 23, 2024, based on the current average block interval.

Aside from its technical beauty and inevitable nature, the Bitcoin halving is also appealing to investors. All previous halvings resulted in strong market performance in the 365 days that followed.

According to “Checkmatey,” an on-chain analyst at Glassnode, Bitcoin has had an outstanding yearly return profile of over 400% following the halving event in previous cycles. However, keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results.

The 2024 #Bitcoin halving is coming, estimated to be in April next year.

Past cycles have also seen an impressive 1yr return profile of 400%+ following the event.

In this edition, we study the supply dynamics and investor behaviour that underpins this.https://t.co/Obo9lIwoQl

— _Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) November 13, 2023

That said, the possibility remains bullish for Bitcoin, according to a recent Glassnode analysis.

Looking at the 90-day change in illiquid supply, Glassnode notices a consistent increase in illiquid balances over all previous halving occasions.

This shows that investor buy-side activity increases in the run-up to and during the halving, frequently exceeding the rate of issuance both before and after the event.

Illiquid supply is currently expanding at a pace of 180,000 BTC every quarter, which is 2.2 times faster than issuance. Currently, roughly 81,000 BTC are mined each quarter, which will shortly be reduced to approximately 40,000 BTC per quarter following the halving.

Currently, Glassnode observes a notable confluence between Bitcoin metrics, indicating that “available supply” is at historical lows.

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