Bitcoin: Here’s Real Catalyst for BTC’s Potential 6,000% Rise — Analyst

Crypto investors are eagerly anticipating a decision from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that will likely approve the trading of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, more than a decade after initial attempts were rejected.

Pending approval, 13 companies are expected to offer ETFs, including BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm.

Bitcoin’s price grew significantly for most of 2023, spurred by optimism surrounding the spot ETF approval, and it now trades at about $43,622.

On the contrary, Bitcoin’s price has always declined in response to pessimistic reports concerning the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. The most recent being on Jan. 3, when rumors of Bitcoin spot ETF rejection spooked the markets, and Bitcoin fell roughly 8%.

As the crypto market eagerly awaits the SEC decision in the coming week, two possibilities are presented: the SEC might decide to approve or deny.

Ali states that regardless of what happens with the Bitcoin ETF, another bullish catalyst lies in wait this year, which is the Bitcoin halving. This bullish event, according to Ali, has historically been a catalyst for major price surges.

Whatever happens with the #Bitcoin ETF, remember we have another bullish narrative this year: The $BTC Halving!

It has historically been a catalyst for major price surges. Just take a look at the percentage increases in #BTC price following past halvings. 👇 pic.twitter.com/FF1F99l34c

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 5, 2024

To back up this assertion, Ali posted a graph indicating BTC’s price performance 365 days after past halvings.

The first halving event, which saw BTC mining rewards slashed to 25 BTC, saw the Bitcoin price jump more than 6,000%, per the chart posted by Ali.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin saw an average yearly return profile of over 400% in subsequent halving events in 2016 and 2020. While the price of Bitcoin tends to skyrocket in the months after the halving, it is important to remember that past performance does not predict future results.

Bitcoin halving expected date

While the next BTC halving is expected for block height 840,000, the actual day and hour are subject to change due to the natural fluctuation and probabilistic nature of mining blocks. Based on the current average block interval, Glassnode predicts a likely date of April 23, 2024.

Bitcoin miners currently receive 6.25 Bitcoins for each successfully mined block. This reward will be halved to 3.125 Bitcoin when the next Bitcoin halving happens.

Source