Bitcoin: stalemate on ETF and on the price

For almost two weeks now, the price of Bitcoin has been side-lining around the $37,000 mark due to a standoff over the approval of ETF.

In fact, this stalemate was widely expected, since it was known both that the SEC is wont to take its time to make decisions in such cases and that it will most likely opt for a mass approval of all approvable applications, and that the final deadline is 10 January.

Summary

• The standstill on Bitcoin’s price and ETF news
• The stalemate on ETFs
• Bitfinex’s prediction
• The Bitfinex Alpha report

The standstill on Bitcoin’s price and ETF news

The last real spike in the price of BTC occurred on 9 November, or almost two weeks ago.

Before that date, Bitcoin‘s price had never risen above $36,000 during the course of this year, and on that day it made new annual highs at nearly $38,000.

Since then, however, although it has tried twice more to approach the latter level, it has not yet managed to break down what looks like a real wall, set precisely at $38,000.

On the other hand, however, he has not even dropped below $36,000 again except for very brief moments immediately recovered.

So in fact it has been sideways around $37,000 for about two weeks now, compressed within a fairly narrow range between $36,000 and $38,000.

The stalemate on ETFs

Although to an outside observer it may appear that the situation of SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is currently at a standstill, in reality things are moving forward, albeit with the SEC’s classic very diluted timelines.

Yesterday, for example, ARK submitted the second variant of its application with changes dictated by feedback provided by the agency itself.

Update: @ARKInvest just filed another amended prospectus for their spot #bitcoin ETF. Likely means things are likely still moving with SEC conversations. pic.twitter.com/Of2S1pONDc

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 20, 2023

It might seem like a stalemate because crypto markets are used to evolving much faster, but actually as far as the SEC’s classic timelines are concerned this is business as usual.

So the process is actually moving forward, only presumably it will take at least another month before we see concrete results in this regard.

Bitfinex’s prediction

In the latest issue of Bitfinex Alpha, analysts at the famous crypto exchange say that the price of Bitcoin is likely to continue moving sideways in the coming weeks.

In fact, the recent rally is running into headwinds caused by uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next steps, and the SEC’s sluggishness on the ETF issue.

According to Bitfinex analysts, the $38,000 wall is currently too high a hurdle to overcome in the absence of a positive SEC decision on ETFs.

This would also be compounded by uncertainty about the next steps of the U.S. central bank. To be fair, the markets pretty much take it for granted that the Fed will no longer raise interest rates, but the situation as a whole is uncertain, to such an extent that many are treading a bit lightly.

Therefore, there is speculation that over the next three weeks the price of Bitcoin may continue to lateralize in the absence of a specific driver that can give it a clear direction.

The Bitfinex Alpha report

In the Bitfinex Alpha #81 report, the exchange’s analysts also point out that there are also already signs of even early April halving pre-pricing in Bitcoin’s price.

In fact, the “available supply” and “supply storage” rates indicate that long-term investors are accumulating Bitcoin at a rate far greater than the issuance of new BTC.

At the same time, however, open interest is down 8.7% in the futures markets, and volumes in the spot markets are down as investors are reducing the risks in their portfolios.

In addition, funding rates for futures contracts have turned positive, indicating the possible spread of bearish sentiment.

One of Bitfinex’s analysts commented on the situation saying:

“Headline inflation has declined remarkably from 6.4% at the beginning of the year. This should give the Fed enough room to hold rates steady in its December meeting, in line with current expectations in the Fed Futures market. This would also align with its goal of sustaining economic expansion. However, this pause in rate hikes doesn’t signal a change in the Fed’s broader tightening policy. The central bank remains cautious and ready to adjust rates if inflation persists or unexpectedly increases.”

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