BTC has 80% Chance of Hitting $44K+ But a Fall Below $35k Could Invalidate It: Analyst

A crypto analyst who goes by the pseudonym tedtalksmacro speculated on two possible routes that BTC could take in the macro view. Firstly, the analyst expects BTC to have a sharp and short-lived nuke into $35k, followed by a quick recovery. Secondly, he anticipates BTC to surge above $44K and hit Target 2, as shown in the tweet below.

Updating the macro-view for BTC

For me, I’ve invalidation on the bull thesis up to 35k. Acceptance back below that level would make for an ugly chat.

From here, I think that two scenarios stand out:

A) A sharp and short-lived nuke into 35k (I give a 20% probability of… https://t.co/brunxO6v5q pic.twitter.com/XfzSlanmQu

— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) December 18, 2023

Stating the probability of these two outcomes, the analyst gave a 20% chance for the occurrence of the first event, while he apportioned 80% of the chances of occurrence to the second option.

His thoughts behind his notion of treating the first outcome as a gift probably lie in the fact that the retracement to $35K could present an excellent entry point with the impending BTC halving and spot ETF approval.

When scrutinizing BTC’s behavior during the past seven days, it could be noted that BTC was performing well. It fluctuated between $41.6 and $43.2K for most of the time, except for a few times it fell below this range. It reached a weekly high of $43,288 on December 14.

BTC/USDT 1-Week Chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)

The chart below shows that BTC’s trend of making lower lows changed with the dawn of 2023. That was also the pivotal point where the RSI rose above the signal line, showing bullish momentum.

BTC/USDT 1-Day Chart (Source: Tradingview)

Meanwhile, when considering the retracements that BTC has had since the upsurge in 2023, it could be noted that it was merely around 20%-26% of the price value lost. Hence, if BTC retraces by this same range, then tedtalksmacro’s target of $35K could be proven to be true.

Currently, BTC has touched the upper Bollinger band; hence, as stated above, we may see a retracement. But will the $35K hold up BTC? is the question that demands answers. There is fairly some selling activity at $35K as per the Fixed Range Volume Profile indicator; hence, buyers may hold the support at this range. Additionally, it has been a Point of Control (PoC) on previous occasions.

As such, if this support of $35K is breached, the invalidation of a bullish thesis seems to be a good adjudication. Moreover, the ETF approval and the BTC halving are other factors that favor BTC’s upsurge while eradicating a downfall. Hence, the 80% to 20% apportioning seems to be very fair.

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