Donald Trump back in the lead against Kamala Harris in prediction markets

Weeks after the United States presidential nominee from the Democratic Party, Kamala Harris, evened her odds in prediction markets at winning the November elections against the former U.S. president Donald Trump, it seems her Republican opponent is back in the lead.

Specifically, the odds of Trump winning the elections currently stand at 50%, whereas Harris’s are at 49%, which means that the former’s odds have increased by 0.4%, while the incumbent Vice President’s have decreased by 0.1%, according to the latest Polymarket information on October 4.

Trump vs. Harris in prediction markets

Indeed, the cryptocurrency-based predictions platform taking bets in the regulated dollar stablecoin USDC, presently suggesting Trump’s slight advantage, was firmly in his favor in July after the (first) failed assassination attempt against him.

At the time, the Pennsylvania rally shooting, which ended only with an ear injury, boosted the former president’s chances of victory from 60% to 70% in a single day after steadily increasing until that moment. However, his domination declined to 46% after Harris joined the race, replacing Joe Biden.

Several weeks later, Trump regained popularity against his Democratic rival, with a 52% chance of victory versus Harris’s 47%. In mid-September, Harris again reduced Trump’s leadership position and balanced the scales, with both candidates showing an equal 49% chance of winning.

Manipulation attempts?

That said, it seems that there have been some unsuccessful attempts to manipulate the outcome of derivative bets between Trump and Harris on the Polymarket platform a few days after Trump regained popularity in early September, as Finbold reported on September 7.

As it happens, an X investigator known as Dumpster DAO listed at the time the indicators of the manipulation attempt, which involved deploying over $9 million USDC to buy the ‘yes’ shares for Harris and ‘no’ shares for Trump, trying to artificially boost the Vice President’s odds at winning and profit from it.

All things considered, the prediction markets, while giving some idea of the candidates’ popularity, illustrate the complex nature of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, with the two sides boasting almost identical chances of winning in the absence of any shocking events, as well as highlighting the importance of doing one’s own research when making any significant bets.

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