Ethereum (ETH) Faces an 81% Chance of Missing Out on All-Time High This Year

Ethereum’s (ETH) chances of reaching a new all-time high (ATH) in 2024 have been subject to bets on Polymarket for some time. Most traders who are staking their money on the world’s largest prediction market feel the likelihood is low.

ETH price is $2,549 at press time, representing a 17.75% decrease in the last 30 days. This on-chain analysis examines if the bets against the altcoin may be worth it.

The Odds Are Heavily Stacked Against Ethereum

According to data from Polymarket, 3% of traders believe that ETH’s price will reach its ATH before the end of this third quarter.

However, 18%, with bets valued at $201,429, suggest that the cryptocurrency will hit the landmark between October and December 2024.

Lastly, traders have placed bets worth a staggering $477,498 that Ethereum’s price will be lower than its ATH by the end of the year. This group represents 81% of traders who are putting their money where their mouth is.

Read more: How to Invest in Ethereum ETFs?

Ethereum All-Time High Bets. Source: Polymarket

Just a few months ago, market participants were sure that ETH’s price would trade higher than its peak in 2021. One reason could be the sentiment that the cryptocurrency will follow in Bitcoin’s (BTC) post-ETF approval footsteps.

However, that has not been the case. For instance, in BTC’s run to a new ATH in March, US investors accumulated a ton of the coin apart from the massive institutional inflow it had.

According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium Index for Ethereum increased between August 3 and 6. This index gives insights into the activity of market participants in the US High values indicate strong buying pressure in the country.

Low values indicate otherwise. As of this writing, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned down from that height. This suggests that buying power on the exchange is not close to a high level.

Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Furthermore, the fact that Solana’s (SOL) price hit a new ATH against ETH could be linked to the bets. If sustained, this could be detrimental to ETH’s price and its chances of reaching an all-time high in 2024.

ETH Price Prediction: $5,000 Possible, But Not in 2024

Apart from the altcoin’s chances of reaching a new ATH, investors are interested in whether the crypto has reached its cycle top. To evaluate this possibility, BeInCrypto examines the Pi Cycle Top Indicator.

This indicator uses the relationship between the 111-day Moving Average (green) and the 365-day Moving Average (purple) to determine whether the price has reached the market top. Historically, the price gets close to the top when the longer EMA crosses above the shorter EMA.

As seen below, the crossover happened around September. By November, Ethereum’s price had reached $4,891 and, shortly after, began to trend downwards.

At press time, the crossover has not happened, indicating that the ETH price can increase before the cycle top. By the look of things, the value of the cryptocurrency may not hit $8,000 or $10,000 as predicted in some corners.

Read more: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Ethereum Pi Cycle Top Indicator. Source: Glassnode

According to this indicator, Ethereum could potentially reach an all-time high of $5,367 within the next 350 days. On a shorter 111-day timeframe, ETH’s value might climb to $3,295. If the price remains around this level, Ethereum may not surpass its previous all-time high in 2024.

However, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and conditions can change rapidly. A surge in investor interest and buying pressure could invalidate this prediction, increasing the likelihood of ETH reaching a new high.

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