Gemini’s 2024 Crypto Outlook: Spot ETF Impact, Halving, Regulation, and Security

Gemini, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, recently released its 2024 Crypto Trend Report, offering a detailed analysis of the key trends and predictions for the year.

Potential Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

Gemini’s report suggests a significant potential impact on Bitcoin’s price following the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. They predict a 123% increase in Bitcoin’s price within a year of such an approval. This prediction is based on the historical relationship between gold holdings and returns, implying a similar effect on Bitcoin.

Gemini emphasizes that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would be a major milestone, solidifying Bitcoin’s status as a legitimate institutional-grade investment. Furthermore, this development could open the vast $36.7 trillion retirement fund market to the crypto asset class, providing U.S. investment funds with access to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Halving 2024

The report by Gemini also talks about the expected Bitcoin halving in April 2024. This event, which will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins, is anticipated to lower the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market. Gemini highlights the historical trend of Bitcoin’s price experiencing a parabolic rise following its previous halving events. They underscore the halving as a reaffirmation of Bitcoin’s core attributes: predictability, reliability, and trustworthiness.

Regulation

On the regulatory front, Gemini points out the significant strides made globally, with the EU being particularly notable for its influential role in traditional markets and the thoughtful approach to crypto regulation. The report references the EU’s passage of MiCA in April 2023, hailing it as a landmark in crypto-specific regulation. Gemini warns that a regulatory regime hostile to crypto could drive beneficial actors offshore and pose an existential threat to the economy, especially as the artificial intelligence revolution and Web3 innovation gain momentum. The U.S., according to Gemini, is at a critical juncture with its approach to crypto regulation, where regulation by enforcement is seen as inadequate for providing clarity or consumer protection and could stifle innovation.

Security

The security aspect of the crypto and Web3 space is another key focus of Gemini’s report. They predict that attackers will continue to find sophisticated ways to access wallets and accounts, making unphishable multi-factor authentication (MFA) methods like passkeys and Yubikeys increasingly vital. Gemini anticipates a shift in the security industry towards developing Web3 security tools and protections. These advancements will include tools for security professionals, such as Web3-focused SOAR and detection platforms, and technologies for consumers to safeguard their Web3 accounts and assets.

The report also mentions Gemini’s collaboration with other industry leaders in creating the REKT Test, a tool for blockchain companies to assess compliance with best practices in access control, key management, and protection against hacker exploits. This initiative reflects the industry’s effort to evolve security frameworks, guidelines, and best practices.

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