How Did Bitcoin Price Move During and After Previous Halvings: Here is the Data

As we approach the next Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for Saturday, April 20 at approximately 1:00 am ET, it is worth taking a look at how the Bitcoin price has reacted before and after previous halvings.

Historically, the year following the halving has seen significant increases in Bitcoin’s price:

• 2012: 8.839%
• 2016: 285%
• 2020: 548%

The month following the halving saw more mixed results:

• 2012: 9%
• 2016: -10%
• 2020: 6%

While the data we have is limited, an interesting pattern emerges: The market is pricing in the short-term impact of the halving but underestimating the long-term impact.

Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes shared his thoughts on the upcoming Bitcoin halving in a Medium post last week. While discussing the halving, which is seen as a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrency markets, he said:

“I agree that this will raise prices in the medium term, but price movements immediately before and after may be negative.”

Hayes also noted:

“The narrative that the halving is positive for crypto prices is well established. When most market participants agree on a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs.

“I believe that Bitcoin and crypto prices will generally decline during the halving period.”

*This is not investment advice.

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