Middle East Tension Puts Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Run to $80,000 on Hold

As the global market reacts to the rising geopolitical tensions facing the Middle East, Bitcoin’s (BTC) anticipated bull run in October has been set back. Before Iran’s missile strike on Israel, Bitcoin’s price was over $64,000.

After the incident, the coin dropped to $60,350 as investors responded to the macroeconomic factor with notable sell-offs. This analysis explores the impact of the escalating conflict on Bitcoin’s price action, how market sentiment has shifted, and what could be next for BTC.

Iran’s Strike on Isreal Threatens Bitcoin

Glassnode data shows that the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index stood at 61 early yesterday, reflecting positive investor sentiment. This index, which ranges from 0 to 100, gauges market sentiment. Readings near zero indicate extreme fear, while values closer to 100 suggest greed and optimism.

Before Iran’s missile strike, the index suggested strong investor confidence in Bitcoin’s price rising above $64,000. However, the index has since dropped to 39, signaling growing fear in the market and a potential pause in Bitcoin’s bull run.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Source: Glassnode

Amid the gloomy sentiment, Bitcoin’s price dropped below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which is the average on-chain acquisition cost within the last 155 days.

When the coin price is above it, the trend is bullish, and the price can reach higher levels. At press time, Bitcoin’s STH Realized Price is $62,617. Since it is higher, it indicates that Bitcoin might no longer move close to $80,000 in the short term.

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Bitcoin STH Realized Price. Source: Glassnode

BTC Price Prediction: $60,600 Is Key

From an on-chain point of view, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) shows that the region between $63,510 and $65,323 is critical for Bitcoin. The IOMAP shows the number of addresses that have accumulated a certain volume at a price range.

Typically, the higher the volume, the stronger the support or resistance. As seen below, 2.15 million Bitcoin addresses are holding 1.27 million BTC in the region mentioned above. This volume is higher than the minor support at $60,666.

Bitcoin IOMAP. Source: IntoTheBlock

As such, Bitcoin’s price might find it challenging to hit $65,000 in the short term. Instead, a decrease to $59,813 could be likely.

Interestingly, digital asset management firm 10x Research agrees that the $60,600 level is minor resistance for BTC. In its recent report, it opines that Bitcoin’s price has to surpass $66,000 to have any chance of invalidating the current bearish condition.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: 10x Research

“The liquidity cycle has yet to materialize fully. Bitcoin’s failure to break through $66,000 aligned with the descending resistance line, a level that might have been surpassed in the ISM Manufacturing data had been more favorable,” Markus Theilen, 10x Research’s Lead Analyst, wrote.

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