What’s behind the latest rise (and retreat) of BTC

Today, enjoy the Forward Guidance newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.

Looking back, ahead after BTC breaches $69K

We’ve heard the-stage-is-set-for-a-big-bull-run narrative for a while.

The difference now is that bitcoin’s price is actually reflecting that sentiment (or was, at least). And the election, which was not far off before, is even closer now (that’s how time works, wouldn’t ya know).

Bitcoin hit roughly $69,400 over the weekend. It stood at around $67,350 at 2 pm ET Monday — down about 2% on the day but up 7% from a week ago.

So we’re currently about 8% off the all-time high BTC price set in March.

Compass Point analysts Joe Flynn and Ed Groshans, like many others, expect a new price peak for the asset in the coming weeks or months. The reasons they gave in a recent research note are:

• Increasing stablecoin liquidity
• Tight exchange supply
• Front-running of $10 billion of FTX creditor settlements
• The extension of the Mt. Gox repayments deadline
• Continued demand for bitcoin ETFs

On the latter point, the US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs are on a six-day net inflow streak, during which nearly $2.4 billion has entered the products. The category’s last net inflow run of that length (or longer) was from Sept. 19 to Sept. 30. But you’d have to go back to July for the last time we saw such intense inflows (nearly $3 billion between July 5 and July 22).

The latest capital entering these ETFs come amid what CoinShares research head James Butterfill called “growing expectations of a Republican victory in the upcoming US elections.”

Polymarket, as of about three weeks ago, showed a roughly 50-50 split in terms of the projected presidential winner. Now, about 62% are betting on Trump, though Casey mentioned on Friday how four accounts recently pouring more than $30 million into Trump bets have impacted those figures.

New York Times polling, as of this morning, shows a much tighter picture. Leads by Trump and Harris amount to less than one percentage point in battleground states Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. The polling data depicts Trump with a slightly larger edge in Georgia and Arizona.

As many look to who will take the White House, Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal reminded us at Permissionless last week that the makeup of Congress could also be crucial for crypto regulatory progress.

The Compass Point analysts wrote in mid-September they believe a Republican sweep is the most likely outcome. Ron Hammond, director of government relations at Blockchain Association, told me earlier this month that a divided Congress could hinder Trump’s ability to deliver on his crypto-related promises.

“As much as [Trump] can say he wants market structure legislation or he wants to protect self-custody, a lot of that stuff’s got to be enshrined through legislation,” Hammond said. “He has to work with Congress to get that over the finish line, and if it’s a Democratic House, that’s very tough to do.”

And as we talk about possible new all-time highs for what many deem to be the digital form of gold, the real precious metal hit an all-time high at about $2,740 per ounce on Monday.

Analysts have noted that safe-haven assets are in demand as conflict continues in the Middle East and concerns about a global growth slowdown persist.

You may remember it was BlackRock CEO Larry Fink who attributed some of an October 2023 bitcoin price rally to “a flight to quality” during geopolitical tensions.

Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s CIO of ETF and index investments, more recently noted during Blockworks’ Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City that interest in a slew of alternatives picks up during times of war and changes to political and economic regimes.

“Clearly bitcoin is a risky asset just measured based on price volatility,” Cohen said. “But when you have major risk events in markets, one might argue that, a lot of times, those are triggered by events that should actually potentially be net positive for bitcoin.”

So some more clarity around a potential catalyst (the election) will come in 15 days. But, per usual for us crypto/macro/finance journalists, there are plenty of other things to keep tabs on.

— Ben Strack

$1.1 billion

The reported value of Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge, according to TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington.

Neither Stripe nor Bridge immediately confirmed that specific figure to Blockworks. But what’s clear now is the deal is set to close in the coming months (subject to regulatory approvals), the companies revealed Monday.

In an X post about the deal, Stripe CEO Patrick Collison called stablecoins “room-temperature superconductors for financial services.” He added: “Stripe is going to build the world’s best stablecoin infrastructure.”

Earnings season continues

Earnings season continues this week after the first batch of reports showed, on balance, solid numbers. LSEG data shows that more than 80% of the companies that have reported so far have beat estimates.

Here are the highlights from Q3 earnings reports so far:

• Bank results were solid. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs each beat expectations. We did see an increase in money that major players are setting aside for credit losses though, which is generally a negative leading indicator. JPMorgan put away $3.1 billion — more than double the amount it earmarked in Q3 2023.
• Netflix also surprised analysts, with last quarter’s revenue coming in at $9.83 billion vs. the expected $9.78 billion. Earnings per share also beat at $5.40 compared to the anticipated $5.16.
• On the other hand, although semiconductor company ASML showed year-over-year revenue growth, its forecasts for future growth are limited. The fact that ASML’s report was unexpectedly published a day early during trading hours certainly didn’t help its share price, either. If you’ll remember last week, we wrote about semiconductor demand as a leading indicator for how other companies will perform, so it’s an area to watch.

On tap this week are big names including Tesla, IBM and Thermo Fisher Scientific. More positive news on the earnings front will certainly not be a bad thing, but as Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research said, the upside is limited.

“First, last week was clear evidence that much of the good news we’re receiving (solid growth, stable earnings, falling inflation, no negative geopolitical surprises) is already reflected in the S&P 500 above 5,900. As such, that news is not going to fundamentally propel stocks higher near term,” Essaye said.

We’ll have all the earnings-related updates, so stay tuned and keep an eye on your inbox.

— Casey Wagner

On Our Radar

Happy Monday! We hope our readers enjoyed the weekend. Last week’s data painting a positive picture for a soft landing means markets want to see that momentum continue, but there isn’t too much on tap this week. We’ve already previewed the major earnings results coming up; here’s what to watch on the report front:

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index, released Monday morning, surprised to the downside. The 0.5% decline in September marked the fifth straight monthly decline for the index. Over the past six months, the index has shed 2.6%, compared with a 2.2% decline during the six months prior. The index is now flashing a recession signal, indicating that a recession is “likely imminent or underway.”
• On Thursday we will again get initial jobless claim numbers, which are expected to show a mild uptick for the week ended Oct. 19. Last week’s figures showed an unexpected decline in first-time filers, but analysts have warned that ongoing impacts from recent hurricanes will likely skew data for weeks to come. In other words, markets would love to see another decline, but if we don’t, it’s not a huge deal. At least for now.
• October flash PMIs will also be released Thursday, giving us the first look at economic data for the fourth quarter. Last month’s reading came in strong at 54, and continued momentum on this front will be a positive sign for markets.

— Casey Wagner

Bulletin Board

• The SEC’s Division of Examinations on Monday released its annual priorities report for the 2025 fiscal year. In it there is a separate section on “crypto assets,” which in past years has been combined with the section on “emerging financial technologies.” The team said it will focus on examining broker-dealer practices and the offer, sale and trading of crypto asset securities.
• Most altcoins have collectively outperformed ether, so far in October, in terms of trading volume, research from Kaiko shows. The gap in volume between ETH and the top 50 altcoins is now the largest it has been since March.
• As its FOIA-related lawsuit rages on, Coinbase on Monday said it had requested a separate set of records, this time from the FDIC. The crypto exchange is seeking all documents related to crypto rules for banking institutions, including documents concerning an alleged “digital asset deposit cap.”

Source