Why $81,000 might be realistic target for Bitcoin before halving

Bitcoin (BTC) has commenced March on a high note, establishing its price above the $60,000 support zone and achieving the highest monthly close since October 2021, moments before it reached an all-time high.

Indeed, the current positive momentum is supported by several bullish elements, including the upcoming halving and the ongoing performance of exchange-traded funds (ETF). In line with this, a significant market consensus suggests that the rally will likely continue its upward trend.

Commenting on what to expect from Bitcoin, crypto trading expert Trading Shot, in a TradingView post on March 2, highlighted that, based on technical indicators and historical patterns, Bitcoin is poised to reach a new all-time high before the next halving.

With Bitcoin having broken the 0.382 Fibonacci level on the weekly chart in early February for the first time since June 6, 2022, the expert observed that the development is crucial in cyclical terms, drawing parallels with previous cycles.

Applying the Fibonacci Channel to the last two cycles, Trading Shot pointed out that every time Bitcoin surpassed the 0.382 Fibonacci level in the past cycle, it also hit the 0.5 Fib level. This observation holds significance as it has happened twice before.

Notably, the time it took for Bitcoin to reach the 0.5 Fib level after breaking the 0.382 Fib level in those instances was seven weeks (49 days) and eight weeks (56 days).

Based on this historical pattern, the analyst estimated a maximum of eight weeks for Bitcoin to hit the 0.5 Fib level again. If this pattern repeats exactly, the target week would be April 1, 2024. In such a scenario, Bitcoin could reach $81,000. However, if the breakthrough happens earlier, the range could be between $78,000 and $81,000.

Market ready for parabolic rally

At the same time, amid prevailing bullish sentiments dominating the market, Trading Shot suggested that the cryptocurrency market may be entering the most aggressive phase of the current cycle.

“The 1W CCI indicator (green circles) suggests that we might be closer to a November 2020 fractal than May – June 2019 (which was of course caused by the Libra euphoria). This indicates that currently we might be at the very start of this Cycle’s most aggressive part, the Parabolic Rally,” he said.

Notably, Bitcoin’s current price has coincided with what appears to be significant demand for the product’s ETF, with investors increasingly betting on BTC to reclaim the $69,000 record high. As of March 1, the cumulative spot Bitcoin ETF volume reached an all-time high of $73.91 billion after weeks of consistent gains.

The potential impact of the ETF briefly propelled Bitcoin to touch $64,000 before retracing slightly below the $62,000 spot.

Bitcoin price analysis

By press time, Bitcoin is valued at $61,769 with daily gains of almost 1%. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has rallied 20%.

Despite the majority consensus pointing towards sustained Bitcoin gains, caution is warranted, as the asset will likely experience a correction, especially in the event of increased profit-taking.

Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.

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