Why Bitcoin Price No Longer Moves on Weekends? Why Aren’t the Old Rallies Happening? Kaiko Explains the Cause of Fatigue

According to cryptocurrency research firm Kaiko, the proportion of Bitcoin traded on weekends fell to an all-time low of 16% this year.

This decline follows the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which appear to bring Bitcoin trading periods more in line with the schedule of traditional stock exchanges and reduce Bitcoin’s price volatility.

One of the notable features of crypto, unlike stocks, is that it can be traded at all hours of the day and even on Saturdays and Sundays. In the past, Bitcoin trading has become notorious for “Wild Weekends” where the digital currency will experience wide price swings. However, this phenomenon appears to be cooling as Bitcoin’s weekend trading volume continues to decline from its 28% high in 2019. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs is probably a big reason why.

Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024 with approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and have attracted investor interest ever since, causing the Bitcoin price to skyrocket to a record high in March. While some of those gains have been erased, the top cryptocurrency is still up nearly 45% this year, hovering around $61,000.

Unlike most cryptocurrencies, which can be bought and sold at any time on exchanges like Binance, Bitcoin ETFs follow the schedule of the traditional exchange on which they are traded, meaning they cannot be traded on the weekend. Kaiko said that the rate of Bitcoin traded between 15:00 and 16:00 on weekdays increased from 4.5% to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023. This is the period known as the benchmark pegging window, during which ETFs’ owners set the Bitcoin price and then use it to calculate the ETF’s net asset value.

The collapse of crypto-friendly banks Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023 also contributes to the decline in transaction volume on weekends, according to Kaiko. This is because market makers can no longer use banks’ 24/7 payment networks to buy and sell crypto in real time. “The weekend/weekday gap is likely to persist because market makers, who derive their revenue from large volumes of trades, have less incentive to provide liquidity in a low-volume environment,” Kaiko’s report states.

Institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies through Bitcoin ETFs has also led to greatly reduced price volatility, according to another report from Kaiko. The last time Bitcoin hit record highs in November 2021, volatility rose to almost 106%. After Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,798 in March on optimism about ETFs, volatility was just 40%.

According to Kaiko, the trend towards lower volatility and remaining below 50% since the beginning of 2023 indicates that Bitcoin is becoming a more mature asset. “While it is too early to say this is the new normal, changes in Bitcoin’s market structure over the past year may help explain why price action has been relatively ‘dull’,” the report said.

*This is not investment advice.

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