Willy Woo Reveals Paper BTC To Real BTC Ratio Of 20%-30% In Token2049 Speech

In a recent speech at Token2049, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo delved into the fascinating world of Bitcoin liquidity, shedding light on a critical aspect: the ratio between paper BTC and highly liquid real BTC used for spot trading.

This is a slide from my TOKEN2049 talk. It’s the ratio of “paper BTC” (combined futures open value) that’s traded vs the real BTC that is highly liquid and traded. We are now in a regime of 20-30% more BTC being traded. This counteracts a bullish supply shock. pic.twitter.com/fnCHPFXAfC

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) September 20, 2023

Adding to this discourse, Twitter user therationalroot revisited Willy Woo’s original chart, comparing the total value of open interest contracts in futures trading to Bitcoin’s Highly Liquid Supply, and stated that Woo’s reevaluation indicated a “dilution” of 20-30%.

However, Root said when considering Liquid Supply, the range narrows to 10-20%, suggesting a more accurate estimate of actively traded supply.

His data indicated a “dilution” of 20-30%. However, I’ve extended the analysis to include a comparison with both Highly Liquid and Liquid Supply. I think including Liquid Supply is a better estimate of actively traded Supply. This adjustment suggests a more modest “dilution” range of 10-20%.

therationalroot wrote

Besides, to gauge the division of liquidity supply, analytics platform Glassnode employs a metric based on cumulative outflows and inflows throughout an entity’s life cycle. This approach provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of paper BTC versus real BTC.

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